It's Speculation Time

20 Goal-a-Season Striker Found

It’s started already and the season hasn’t even ended… the media are making stuff up… the agents are getting busy and everyone is ignoring facts or not doing any research into the facts.  So this is a look at the make up of Saints squad and my opinion on who might or might not be here next season.  First up – the facts.

Fact 1 is that Ralph has said he likes to work with a smaller rather than larger group of players so that basically rules out signing an additional five or six, especially in view of …

Fact 2, which is that we already have too many senior pros, a result of questionable recruitment and questionable contract extensions handed out.  

Fact 3 is that Ralph has also indicated that he would rather sign younger players so anyone who is over the age of about 27/28 is unlikely going to be considered.  

Fact 4 is that with his style of play, Ralph has indicated a preference for players with pace so I can’t see us signing any players who are not quick, regardless of their position on the pitch.

Fact 5 is that he will also want to players who are in the main very fit, which they will have to be to fit into the style of play that Ralph wants to impose on the team so that rules out your injury prone players.

Fact 6 is that we will only spend what we bring in.  I kind of hope it’s not a fact and the board were just managing expectations but I kind of suspect it is a fact.

Fact 7 is realism.  You cannot just bin players who are not good enough who have 4 years left on their contract for example.  It will cost money to either pay up contracts or you end up paying wages for the duration of the contract remaining.

If the media did any homework they could narrow it down to three simple categories before they publish their ‘Southampton show interest in…’ bullshit.  These three categories are Age, Pace and Fitness.  The first name the media will therefore come up with is Theo Walcott who can run like the wind (Tick the quick box) for about 10 seconds before being injured for four months (cross in the fitness box) as he approaches his 31st birthday (cross in the age box). He is a former Southampton player from 15 years ago though so of course in the eyes of the media, that trumps any sort of commonsense criteria that we may have.

So, the likes of Walcott can be ruled out on the grounds of age and fitness, Scott Arfield can be ruled out on grounds of age and probably pace and players that we have been linked to in the past like Gary Cahill are complete nonstarter.  This is before we even start talking about wages for Top 6 club cast-offs if that is in fact where the player is.  We haven’t been linked with Adam Lallana, but if we were – no pace, no fitness, too old.

Some of the players we currently have like Danny Ings would fail on one of the categories but we of course can’t apply the categories to all of the players we already have as we’d probably have none left.  This is about recruitment though and in my opinion, what we need is actually two or three quality players and not the spray recruitment and changing of five or six.  Evolution not revolution.  So this is my best guess as to how the summer will go.

We have the problem of the dead wood to sort out and getting clubs to take players that we have under contract who are all getting paid too much. I can imagine that Ralph will be fairly blunt with these players and tell them that they are not going to play like he did with Wesley Hoedt. This bluntness will help but we will undoubtedly be left with one or two who are quite happy to sit on their fat contracts and do nothing. To my mind we will probably look to clear out the following list of players for differing reasons and if we do, hopefully get the indicated amount of money for them....

Alex McCarthy - £10m
Cedric Soares - £5m
Wesley Hoedt - £6m
Jack Stephens - £4m
Harrison Reed - £2m
Sam McQueen - £1m
Mario Lemina - £15m
Guido Carrillo - £8m
Mohammed Elyounoussi - £8m (maybe we have a receipt and he’s still in guarantee)
Sam Gallagher - £6m
Jordy Clasie - £2m

Charlie Austin - £500k loan fee (minus golden handshake of an 8 pack of lager and a Doner Kebab)

The goalkeeper situation is quite interesting. One thing for certain is that Angus Gunn will be the number one goalkeeper going forward next season. Current number two is Alex McCarthy who is clearly too good to be a number two goalkeeper. Also, he is worth a few quid and there will be a team that will take him. Bournemouth for example are going to be in the market for a first choice keeper. The reason we’d sell Alex is because of the elephant in the room that is Fraser Forster, one of our highest earning players and currently third choice. I can see a situation where we sell McCarthy and use Forster as our second choice (which would be fine) which at least means we are getting some return for the huge outlay every month. In a perfect world, a team would come in for Forster but with his wages I just cannot see it. 

At right back, Yan Valery is first choice and in all likelihood will continue to be so next season. When at Leipzig, Ralph liked to rotate the full-backs though so wouldn’t surprise me if another one he’s brought in as Kayne Ramsay doesn’t really look ready to challenge for a regular first team sport as yet. We do of course have Cedric who I think will be punted out the door to whoever it prepared to give us any more than £5 million quid for him. Hopefully they’ll read the label that says Euro 2016 winner.  Left back will be Ryan Bertrand and we have Matt Targett as a back up. Nothing to see here unless Targett decides that he wants to move to get some regular first-team football.  Sam McQueen I think will be gone, unless the serious injury he has means he is given another season.

At centre back we have the three regulars who are Jan Bednarek, Jannik Vestergaard and Maya Yoshida and I feel that all three of these will be around next season. I’m really not sure about Calamity Jack Stephens as one of our priority recruiting areas has to be at centre back and I can’t see Ralph wanting to have five first-team centre backs in the squad especially if he wants to move more towards playing a 4-2-2-2 formation. We will of course get Wesley Hoedt back because having seen him play, Celta Vigo won’t want him. He does look the sort of player that would fit into that free-flowing Ajax side, ha ha ha! Even if we take a huge loss and can get £5 million for him, then we have to take it to get him off the books.  When he goes, we must all ‘like’ it on every social media platform.

I can’t see a strengthening in midfield with the first choice three of Oriol Romeu, Pierre Hojbjerg and James Ward Prowse will very much be around next season. I would not be remotely surprised if Mario Lemina goes and not because he isn’t good enough. Let’s face it, he doesn’t want to be here and he never really has and as soon as it gets difficult he’s always just disappeared. A brief renaissance at the start of the season just gone under Mark Hughes but it was really weird how a relatively minor sounding injury turned into six months without playing. The money will come in handy as well.  Lemina may want a season under Ralph to try and realise his potential in the English game and if he does then great.  I just wouldn’t be surprised if he has his eyes on the exit door.  I believe we have finally reached the final year of the contract of the lightweight nonentity Jordy Clasie so he’ll be off, cut price to Feyenoord no doubt and it is time for Harrison Reed to move on - a decent player but not good enough for where we are hoping to get to.

On the wings we will of course have Nathan Redmond, Stuart Armstrong and Josh Sims in the squad next year. I’m sure we will be getting rid of one of Mohammad Elyounoussi or Sofiane Boufal.  Boufal would fetch more money but he’s the one who has shown the most out of the two.  Personally, I hope it’s Elyounoussi who goes because he has not shown anything that suggests that he is going to be a decent player in this league. No pace, trickery, shooting, work rate, fitness. None of it. At least with Boufal you know he’s got it in the locker. The decision making is not the best at times but at least there is something to work with and maybe he’s another Ralph can get more out of. At risk of sounding like Claude Puel, I’m not expecting much but I am quite intrigued by the possibilities.

The strikers is next year will be Danny Ings with back up provided by Shane Long and Michael Obafemi if he can stay fit for longer than 5 minutes. A few months ago, the last thing I would have ever wanted was for Shane Long to still be here next season but he will be because of his pace and aggressive running.  He’s never going to be the best but he fits the profile of the striker the Ralph wants in his teams. Charlie Austin does not of course and he will want to pick up the last years money on his contract so I can see him either hanging around and being an unused substitute or going on loan to a Championship club and trying to earn himself a contract for the following season.  I can’t see us getting rid of both Long and Austin as that would mean needing to sign two replacements and we won’t have the money to do that.

Sam Gallagher has made a few appearances this season but I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes, probably to a Championship club where he has proved his worth before. He strikes me as a player that takes just a little bit too long to do whatever it is he’s trying to do and I can’t see him getting a huge run of games in the team in order to improve. There were rumours that someone offered a £7 million for him last year and I think if we can get anywhere near that, then it’s a deal worth making.  Good for the club and the player.  

Ralph may think that Guido Carrillo is the 20 goal striker we need - stranger things have happened….  I can’t think of any off the top of my head so I would imagine we will be looking to recoup about half the money that we paid for him and flogging to someone in Spain or France. We’ll be paying half his wages at least, wherever he goes.  Striker is of course a position where we need to recruit a quality player which won’t be easy because every team in the country wants a striker who can score 20 goals a season.

So, my shopping list is a first choice centre back and a first choice striker, followed by a right back if Cedric goes and a winger if Boufal goes.  Hopefully, the hierarchy restructure won’t get in the way at all and we for once, can do the business early.  Being safe two weeks early certainly helps and you just know that Ralph will be pushing to get things done.  It promises to be an exciting time.